The essay · rule count vs. rigor
Why 24 beats 240.
Open any competitor's marketing page and you'll see a count. "100+ rules." "150+ checks." "200+ optimization patterns." The number gets bigger every year. We have 24.
Here's why we think that's the right number, and why more is usually worse. The argument is mathematical, not philosophical — and it explains a structural problem with how every competitor in this category markets itself.
1. The number game.
Rule count is the easiest marketing number in this category. It scales with effort: ship another rule, the badge ticks up from 100 to 101. It looks like more value for the same price. It reassures a buyer who's never thought hard about what a "rule" actually is.
The problem is that an audit tool isn't a checklist app. Every rule is a statistical test, and statistical tests have a false positive rate. When you stack them, the false positive rate stacks too. That's not a marketing footnote — it shows up in your audit as findings that aren't real.
2. The math problem with running 150 rules.
When you run a statistical check at 95% confidence, you accept a 5% chance of being wrong by pure noise. Run one check, expect roughly zero false positives. Run a hundred, expect about five. The numbers compound. Here's the expected false-positive count at the standard 95% threshold:
| Independent checks | Expected false positives (α = 0.05) | What that means in practice |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | ~0.75 | Usually zero false findings on an audit |
| 100 | ~5 | About 5 wrong findings every audit |
| 150 | ~7.5 | Between 7 and 8 wrong findings every audit |
| 200 | ~10 | 10 wrong findings every audit |
| 500 | ~25 | 25 wrong findings every audit |
Expected false positives = n × α. The math assumes the worst case — every test is testing pure noise. A real audit has fewer because some rules are testing real signal. The point is the direction: more rules, more wrongness.
This is the multiple comparisons problem. Every textbook on statistical inference covers it. The standard corrections — Bonferroni, Holm, Benjamini-Hochberg — exist specifically because running many tests at the naive threshold produces findings that aren't real.
Math, shown
The Bonferroni correction says: if you're running n tests and you want the family-wise false positive rate to stay below 5%, run each individual test at α = 0.05 / n. For 150 rules at 95% family-wise confidence, each rule needs to fire at α ≈ 0.00033 — meaning the evidence has to be roughly 150× stronger before any single rule is allowed to surface. Most audit tools don't come close to that standard. They publish at α = 0.05 per rule and let the false positives accumulate.
Every false positive is a finding that fires, recommends a fix, and turns out to be nothing when the customer implements it. The customer loses trust. They churn. The math doesn't care that the marketing said "150+ checks."
Honest Growth applies Benjamini-Hochberg correction at q = 0.10 to the rules that produce many sub-findings — including audience overlap pairs and placement comparisons. Most audit tools don't apply this correction. The math gets buried in the marketing.
Rule count is a marketing number. False positive rate is the math number. They move in opposite directions.
3. What 15 well-built rules actually do.
The "24 rules" framing is the surfacing layer — what shows up on your report. The rigor is in how each rule fires against every eligible entity in your account.
Take a real account: 14 ad sets, 38 ads, 12 audiences, 7 placement types. Our 24 rules produce something like this:
- 200+ individual statistical checks per audit — 23 patterns multiplied across eligible entities (15 at launch, +2 in v1.1, +6 deterministic strict-evidence additions in v1.2)
- 47 statistical signals computed across the dataset (rolling windows, sibling deltas, audience-pair overlaps)
- 20,000+ data points examined on a typical mid-size account
- Wilson 95% confidence intervals on every rate comparison — proportions, not raw averages (Wilson 1927; the interval doesn't collapse at the boundary the way the textbook normal-approximation one does)
- Sample-size guards — at least 30 conversions per entity before any comparison fires
- Benjamini-Hochberg correction (q = 0.10) on rules that produce families of sub-findings (Benjamini & Hochberg 1995)
The trade is deliberate. More checks, fewer false positives, better findings — because every check is built to survive its own statistical scrutiny before it ever surfaces on your report. That's the right trade.
4. Why competitors don't run this methodology.
We're not naming names — most of these tools are competent at what they do, and the structural problem is the category, not the team. But three forces push every audit vendor toward inflating rule count:
1. Volume justifies pricing.
When your pricing is "$24/month for 100+ rules," cutting to 15 well-built rules makes the price look high. The headline number is doing the conversion work. Volume is marketing, not methodology.
2. Black-box methodology hides the math problem.
When the rules are proprietary, no one outside the company can audit the false positive rate. There's no incentive to publish your statistical corrections — or even to apply them — if no buyer is going to check.
3. More findings = more dashboard signal.
A customer who sees 24 findings feels they got value. A customer who sees 4 high-confidence findings feels they paid for "only 4 things." The truth runs the other direction: 4 things you can actually act on beats 24 things you have to sort through. But the dashboard optic favors the 24.
5. The counter-test.
Don't trust our argument. Run our audit. Then run Markifact's, Madgicx's, anyone's. For each tool, count which findings produced a real recoverable dollar amount when you implemented the fix.
That's the number that matters. Rule count isn't a quality signal — implementation rate is. A tool that surfaces 4 findings and gets 3 of them implemented is doing more work than a tool that surfaces 40 and gets 2 implemented.
We'd rather lose that comparison than win on the marketing badge.
6. The closing.
24 rules. 200+ statistical checks per audit. Wilson intervals. Benjamini-Hochberg correction. Every finding traceable to a specific row of your data and a specific calculation.
Read the methodology. Run the sample audit. Decide for yourself.
If we're wrong about one of the 24, tell us. The rules update. Read the changelog before any other audit tool publishes one.
24 rules. The math behind every one.
Every detection is documented — the conditions it fires on, the statistical correction it uses, and where the rule could be wrong. The argument on this page only matters if you can check the work.
Upload a CSV from your account on the audit page. No sign-up, no card, read-only. You run the audit and read the verdict before you decide whether we're right about any of this — and when you want every finding, the pricing page lays out both plans and what's coming next.
References & further reading
- Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 57(1), 289–300. — The original BH paper. Foundational for everything in §2 and §3.
- Wilson, E. B. (1927). Probable inference, the law of succession, and statistical inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 22(158), 209–212. — The Wilson interval. We use this on every rate comparison.
- Honest Growth methodology — /methodology. Every one of the 24 rules has its own page with the conditions, the math, and where the rule can be wrong.
- Honest Growth trust commitments — /trust. Open methodology is commitment #1 for a reason.